Odds Against Michigan Reaching Regional Final Let Alone 2014 Final Four

Each Final Four since 1995 had at least one school promptly lose a minimum of one player early to the NBA, including all four participants in 2007 (Florida, Georgetown, Ohio State and UCLA). But what happened to those national semifinal schools such as Michigan last season that had multiple players declare early for the NBA? The first 15 "star light" schools with multiple defectors failed to reach an NCAA regional final the next season until Kentucky reversed the trend with a national championship in 2012 after losing Brandon Knight and DeAndre Liggins in 2011.

It would have been one of the greatest achievements in college basketball history if UK returned to the 2013 Final Four after losing five undergraduates from the 38-2 NCAA titlist. The perils of losing so much young talent was reflected in the Wildcats' failure to reach the NCAA playoffs and losing in the opening round of the NIT against Robert Morris. The only team in this category other than UK to lose fewer than seven games was Duke (29-5 in 1999-00). After the first 12 squads thus far this century suffered an average of nine defeats in the wake of such pro defections, Michigan faces an uphill climb based on the following chronological look at how Final Four schools fared the year after having multiple players renounce their college eligibility:

Year Final Four Team Multiple Undergraduates Lost to NBA Draft Record Postseason Outcome Next Season
1995 Arkansas (2) Scotty Thurman, Corliss Williamson 20-13 Lost regional semifinal
1995 North Carolina (2) Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace 21-11 Lost in second round
1996 Mississippi State (2) Erick Dampier, Dontae' Jones 12-18 Did not qualify
1998 North Carolina (2) Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison 24-10 Lost in first round
1999 Duke (3) William Avery, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette 29-5 Lost regional semifinal
2000 Florida (2) Donnell Harvey, Mike Miller 24-7 Lost in second round
2001 Arizona (3) Gilbert Arenas, Richard Jefferson, Michael Wright 24-10 Lost regional semifinal
2001 Michigan State (2) Zach Randolph, Jason Richardson 19-12 Lost in first round
2004 Connecticut (2) Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor 23-8 Lost in second round
2005 Illinois (2) Dee Brown, Deron Williams 26-7 Lost in second round
2005 North Carolina (4) Raymond Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams 23-8 Lost in second round
2007 Florida (4) Corey Brewer, Taurean Green, Al Horford, Joakim Noah 24-12 Reached NIT semifinals
2007 Ohio State (3) Mike Conley Jr., Daequan Cook, Greg Oden 24-13 Won NIT
2008 Kansas (3) Darrell Arthur, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush 27-8 Lost regional semifinal
2008 UCLA (3) Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Russell Westbrook 26-9 Lost in second round
2011 Kentucky (2) Brandon Knight, DeAndre Liggins 38-2 Won national title
2012 Kentucky (5) Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, Marquis Teague 21-12 Lost in NIT first round
2013 Michigan (2) Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. TBD TBD

NOTE: Arkansas' Scotty Thurman went undrafted in 1995.