Close But No Cigar: 1989 Supplied Three Cinderella Wannabees Before UMBC
Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, bombs, government work and drive-in movies. Until UMBC kayoed Virginia this year, a No. 16 seed never defeated a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in the first 135 such match-ups after the playoff field expanded to at least 64 teams in 1985. The average margin was 28.4 points for the 12 mismatches covering the previous three tourneys.
At any rate, we need to pay deference to those setting the hope-springs-eternal table for UMBC that somehow/somewhere/someway/someday a #16 seed would prevail and become the ultimate giant killer. If history means anything, a single-digit result signaled a chink in the armor of #1 seeds. None of the first 13 #1 seeds in the following "shaky-start" category went on to capture the NCAA championship and only three of them - Duke '86, Illinois '89 and North Carolina '97 - advanced to the Final Four:
Year Margin Regional Single-Digit Outcome Between #1 and #16 NCAA Playoff Seeds 1989 1 East Georgetown 50 (Mourning team-high 21 points), Princeton 49 (Scrabis 15) 1989 1 Southeast Oklahoma 72 (King 28), East Tennessee State 71 (Dennis 20) 1996 2 West Purdue 73 (Austin 18), Western Carolina 71 (McCollum 21) 1985 4 Southeast Michigan 59 (Tarpley 15), Fairleigh Dickinson 55 (Wilson 12) 1990 4 Southeast Michigan State 75 (Smith 22), Murray State 71 (Jones 37)* 1989 6 Midwest Illinois 77 (Battle 18), McNeese State 71 (Cutright 28) 2013 6 West Gonzaga 64 (Olynyk 21), Southern 58 (Beltran 21) 1986 7 East Duke 85 (Dawkins 27), Mississippi Valley State 78 (Coleman 24) 2012 7 East Syracuse 72 (Southerland 15), UNC Asheville 65 (Primm 18) 2013 7 South Kansas 64 (Withey 17), Western Kentucky 57 (Crook 13) 1997 8 East North Carolina 82 (Carter 22), Fairfield 74 (Francis 26) 1986 9 West St. John's 83 (Berry 31), Montana State 74 (Hampton 21) 1990 9 Midwest Oklahoma 77 (Jones 19), Towson State 68 (Lee 30) 1996 9 Southeast Connecticut 68 (Allen 24), Colgate 59 (Foyle 21) 2014 9 West Arizona 68 (Johnson 18), Weber State 59 (Berry 24)
*Overtime.