Learning Curve: What's Ahead in Power Conference Digs for New Members?
September 1st, 2013 - 18:42
Half of the Big East Conference's 14-member lineup in 2003-04 are gone upon all of the league realignments. The American Athletic Conference, a splinter group of the Big East, looks more like Conference USA's 2004-05 alignment than anything else. If the C-USA wasn't considered a power league, then why should a stitched-together AAC?
Louisville, Maryland and Rutgers should keep an eye on how Butler, Creighton, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Xavier make the transition to new digs. History shows that it frequently is a difficult adjustment. There is good reason to be anxious. Only eight of the last 28 schools to join power conferences, including four of the last 15 since 2005-06, posted a winning league record in their inaugural campaign.
Arkansas is the only school to win a championship in its debut campaign in a power league (1991-92 in SEC Western Division after leaving SWC). Boston College (2005-06) and Florida State (1991-92) posted the next best first-year league marks in the ACC, where Notre Dame, Pitt and Syracuse will strive to duplicate their performances. The odds are against Butler, Creighton and Xavier excelling in the Big East, where only two of the first 11 new members notched winning records in their season debut.
The average conference record for the last 28 schools in this category is four games below .500. Michigan State posted a comparable anemic mark (5-9) in its first season in the Big Ten in 1950-51. Following is an alphabetical list of first-year league records compiled by schools joining an existing power alliance since Arizona and Arizona State left the WAC for the Pac-8/10 in the late 1970s: