Starting Block: What's Ahead for NCAA Division I Basketball Newcomers?

Last year, Merrimack (Mass.) joined South Dakota (2008-09) as the only NCAA Division I newcomers in the last 33 years to reach the 20-win plateau in its inaugural campaign. How will newbies Bellarmine, UC San Diego, Dixie State and Tarleton State fare this campaign?

Only nine of the first 40 schools moving up to compete at DI in the 21st Century posted a winning record in their debut campaign. The average first-year mark for the previous 40 newcomers was 10-19. Eight of the nine best first-year seasons occurred in the 1970s when 40 of the 70 institutions elevating their programs to DI during the decade promptly posted winning records.

In 1971-72, Southwestern Louisiana, subsequently known as Louisiana-Lafayette and University of Louisiana, became the only school ever to finish in Top 10 of final DI rankings the year after placing in Top 10 of final Division II poll. The Ragin' Cajuns were one of three schools from the Pelican State to win at least 80% of their games in inaugural campaign at DI level in the 1970s (joined by Southern and McNeese State). But it wasn't long before USL was prohibited from fielding a formal team for two seasons (1973-74 and 1974-75) as part of an NCAA probation. Larry Fogle (transferred to Canisius), Fred Saunders (Syracuse) and Robert Wilson (Iowa State) - three of USL's top four rebounders in 1972-73 - were immediately eligible at other schools the next season, combining for 59.4 ppg and 32.6 rpg in 1973-74 when Fogle became the last sophomore to lead nation in scoring in the 20th Century (Griffs-record 33.4 ppg).

Alabama State (22-6 in 1982-83) is the only school since the 1970s to win more than three-fourths of its games in its DI debut campaign. Following is a first-year summary of schools moving up to the major-college ranks after the initial season of NCAA classification in 1947-48:

*Evansville had an abbreviated schedule because of tragic plane crash.