Seeding Capacity: Historical Odds Against #1 Virginia Reaching Final Four

March 23rd, 2014 - 19:17

Associated Press voters should profusely apologize to Virginia for not having the Cavaliers ranked among its preseason Top 20. After capturing their first Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season championship in 31 years, the Cavaliers (24th in the PS) were the 16th team to earn a #1 seed despite failing to be included among the Top 20 in the AP's preseason poll since seeding was introduced in 1979.

Virginia's NCAA championship aspirations were dim, however. After exceeding expectations, the schools in this category run out of steam as none of these #1 seeds went on to capture an NCAA title and only two of them (Indiana State '79 and Minnesota '97) advanced to the Final Four.

Year School Coach Regional (NCAA Performance)
1979 Indiana State Bill Hodges Midwest (lost championship game)
1985 Michigan Bill Frieder Southeast (lost in second round)
1986 St. John's Lou Carnesecca West (lost in second round)
1990 Connecticut Jim Calhoun East (lost regional final)
1990 Michigan State Jud Heathcote Southeast (lost regional semifinal)
1994 Missouri Norm Stewart West (lost regional final)
1994 Purdue Gene Keady Southeast (lost regional final)
1995 Wake Forest Dave Odom East (lost regional semifinal)
1996 Purdue Gene Keady West (lost in second round)
1997 Minnesota Clem Haskins Midwest (lost national semifinal)
1999 Auburn Cliff Ellis South (lost regional semifinal)
2002 Cincinnati Bob Huggins West (lost in second round)
2005 Washington Lorenzo Romar West (lost regional semifinal)
2012 Michigan State Tom Izzo West (lost regional semifinal)
2013 Gonzaga Mark Few West (lost in second round)
2014 Virginia Tony Bennett East (lost regional semifinal)

NOTE: Purdue '94 (21st), Wake Forest '95 (24th), Purdue '96 (24th), Minnesota '97 (22nd), Washington '05 (22nd), Gonzaga '13 (21st) and Virginia '14 (24th) were ranked just outside the Top 20 in AP preseason polls.